Iowa as predictor, and a little history

Much has been made of the 1992 Iowa caucus, when Governor Clinton ended up with less than 3% and still went on to win the nomination, but few stories are painting the whole picture. Here it is:


It only warrants mention since some news outlets and back-of-the-pack campaigns have been misleadingly calling attention to it, touting the fact that Bill Clinton received less than three percent that year, and yet still won the nomination with ease. What they don’t mention is that, for all intents and purposes, the caucuses didn’t take place in 1992, thanks to the entrance of favorite son Senator Tom Harkin. No candidate, besides Harkin, actively campaigned in the state, almost no one showed up on caucus night, and the final result–Harkin received nearly 80 percent, with “uncommitted” finishing second at 12 percent–was given about two inches of space in most newspapers the next day.

Comments are closed.