The dust has settled from yesterday’s contests, and the AP rankings are out — and Alabama has jumped Texas to take the #2 spot behind Florida (and got the only other first-place votes, 10 vs. Florida’s 50).
During the LSU-Florida game, the commentators were saying openly that the BCS championship will absolutely include the SEC champ, even if it’s a one-loss champ — IOW, if LSU wins all the rest of its games including a Florida rematch for the conference title, the Tigers will play in the big game despite dropping to #10 in this week’s poll. Obviously, if Florida and Alabama win out and meet for the SEC title, that winner will go to the BCS game undefeated and LSU will have to be happy with Sugar.
For the Gators, playing in the weaker SEC East, the only real challenge left will be the conference title game — that, and staying focused through the rest of the regular season. Their slate includes Arkansas, who played well against an inept Auburn yesterday, as well as Spurrier’s Gamecocks who are playing poorly despite a #22 ranking. The Gators round out the season with their traditional grudge match, but FSU isn’t really even in the same league as Florida at this point. It’d take flukes and mistakes for Florida to drop even one of these games, and even if they do they’ll still play for the conference title. That’s as close to a lock as you get in early October.
The Tide, fresh off a dominating win over Mississippi, face Spurrier next week, followed by the Tennessee grudge match. Neither are sources of concern if they continue to execute, especially on the defensive side of the ball. #10 LSU could be a spoiler, but probably not. Auburn has shown its mettle (or lack thereof) already. Predicting the future is a mug’s game, but if Florida’s essentially a lock on the East, Alabama is only a little bit less wired in for the West. Look for a hell of a game, again, when the two squads meet.
Texas’ picture is less obvious, owing to the Big XII’s tendency to back-load their schedules. Next up for the Horns is a two-loss Oklahoma, newly rejuvenated with Bradford back in the lineup. After that, the only ranked squads on tap for the Longhorns are #16 Oklahoma State and #17 Kansas. If Florida is a 95% lock to play in the conference title game, and Alabama a 90%, then give Texas an 85% to win out and end the year with a ticket to play the SEC champ for all the marbles. (I’m less good at handicapping outside the SEC, so actual chances may vary.)
If all this happens, we’ll have ourselves a football game come January.
I think that Arkansas has a chance at an upset next week. They have improved week to week and have a high octane offense that would stress the Florida offense. College Football News best describes it as a “Puncher’s Chance” As for ranking, we keep the number 2 ranking in the coaches poll. We play 2 ranked teams on the road over the next 3 weeks (Ou OSU with Mizzou on the cusp) and a third, KU a couple of weeks later. Then in state rival on Thanksgiving after going up the road to Baylor the week before. Don’t really see Bama’s record here on out as being difficult with the exception of LSU, which you get on the road. We likely get NU in out championship game in Dallas assuming we win the Big XII. Don’t overlook Iowa they may play spoiler in all of this were they to sweep.