Every year, Ed Felton over at Freedom-To-Tinker makes some predictions. This year, his list includes an event we’ve been saying was coming for a while:

(19) A name-brand database vendor will go bust, unable to compete against open source.

The power of tools like PostgreSQL is undeniable, and the growing popularity of its rival MySQL has definitely made it safe to pilot or deploy with an open-source database instead of paying big bucks to Oracle and the like. We’ve seen what can be done with these tools, and it makes us wonder why the hell someone would BUY something like SQL Server.

Still, we’re not sure a vendor bust is in the cards for 2007. Collapse takes time, and so far I don’t think the FOSS options have grown quite enough yet. However, Felton is usually more right than wrong, and there’s no denying that this year will see PSQL and MYSQL take more market share from their commercial competitors. The effects of that market grab will definitely be interesting.